Where the market stands right now

As of late July 2025 the housing market has swung sharply toward buyers in many parts of the country. In my area around Nashville and out into Rutherford County we are sitting on more than six months of inventory. In plain terms that means it would take roughly six to seven months to sell the current supply of homes at the current pace of sales. That is a buyer market.

What I am seeing on the ground

I listed a house right after the Fourth of July. As I record this it is July 27 and we have had zero showings. No calls, no texts, no peep. That is not an isolated fluke. Nearby homes have been on and off the market and over a 90 day stretch some have had only a handful of showings. Inventory has increased, buyer traffic has dropped, and houses are sitting.

One specific example I want you to keep in mind. I sold a house for about 286 thousand dollars seven years ago. Today that same house is listed at 440 thousand dollars. The owners invested in big improvements, a new HVAC, a large sunroom and a deck. It is a very nice house. Even so I think 440 is at the top of what the market will tolerate right now. That is the reality sellers need to face.

Why sellers are feeling the pinch

Sellers currently hold the listing price power yes, but buyers are not compelled to accept a price that feels too high. Unless sellers are willing to take a sizable reduction many homes will sit. If you do not have to move I would seriously consider staying put rather than trying to list in this buyer market. You may face long days on market and multiple price reductions and still not see the activity you expect.

Practical options for sellers

• Stay put and wait for the market to shift if you do not have a pressing need to move.
• If you must sell prepare for a drastic price reduction to attract buyers.
• Work with a local real estate professional who understands your micro market; every neighborhood behaves differently.

What buyers should know

Buyers are in the driver seat right now. There are more homes to choose from and builders are offering incentives. If you are a buyer you can take advantage of supply and seller concessions. That said there is one big problem standing between most buyers and action.

Prices remain too high. The interest rate narrative gets repeated all the time and yes mortgage rates are higher than the ultra low rates many of us got used to during the pandemic. But look back further into history and these rates are not historically extreme. The real drag for many buyers is the sticker price on homes which remains elevated.

What buyers should do

• Shop aggressively. There are deals to be found, especially with new construction incentives.
• Run the numbers beyond the monthly payment. Ensure you can afford not only the mortgage but taxes, insurance and maintenance.
• Consider waiting if you are marginally qualified. A modest rate cut alone is unlikely to solve a large affordability gap caused by high prices.

Why interest rates alone are not the whole story

Some expect that when the Federal Reserve cuts the federal funds rate mortgage rates will immediately fall and everything will be fine. That is not a guarantee. The last time the Fed cut rates mortgage bond yields reacted in ways that pushed mortgage rates up not down. Mortgage rates are influenced by many forces beyond the Fed including the 10 year Treasury, market demand for bonds and broader economic indicators.

Even if the Fed cuts a few times this year a quarter point or two will not erase a 50 to 100 thousand dollar affordability gap caused by high home prices. In short lowering rates may help a little but it will not be a magic bullet that restores the spring 2021 market conditions.

Regional warning signs: watch Florida

Florida is a useful early indicator for the southeastern housing market. Right now Florida is straining under multiple pressures. Snowbirds and seasonal buyers from Canada are selling in larger numbers with fewer buyers coming south. Insurance costs and availability are a real problem in coastal regions. Builders are under stress; we recently saw a South Florida builder file for bankruptcy. When trouble hits a major regional market like Florida those effects often ripple to nearby states over months.

Macro forces that worry me

• Rising unemployment and underemployment in certain sectors is reducing buying power for many households.
• The gig economy is not generating the same incomes it did earlier in the decade for many workers.
• Insurance, construction and regional economic shocks can accelerate local downturns and feed into a broader slowdown.

My outlook and timeline

I think we are entering a rough season that could last at least 24 months and possibly longer. I believe we will see a sharper downturn in 2026. I am concerned it could be deeper than the 2007 to 2009 collapse because the job market and income dynamics have shifted for many families since then. This is not meant to scare you; it is meant to prepare you.

Practical advice right now

If you are a seller and you do not have to move consider maintaining your position and waiting. If you are a buyer do your homework take advantage of incentives and negotiate. If you are renting look for deals; I am seeing complexes offer reduced rates and lease incentives. Preserve cash and focus on affordability. Housing is cyclical and right now the cycle favors those who can act with patience and discipline.

Final thoughts

The market is ugly and upside down in many places right now. That reality is hard to hear but necessary to face. Check with a local real estate professional to understand your specific neighborhood. If you are on the fence think about holding steady and preserving options rather than rushing into a move you might regret.

If you do not have to sell right now, stay put. If you must sell, be prepared to make a meaningful price adjustment. Buyers are in the driver seat, but high prices remain the main barrier to a broad return of buyer activity.

Stay informed, run your numbers, and make decisions based on local data not headlines.